1. Against the backdrop of the Times, energy reform is unstoppable. The current global power source structure is still dominated by fossil energy, accounting for about 60% ; renewable energy accounts for about 30% ; nuclear power accounts for about 10% . We believe that the future increase in the share of new energy is unstoppable. 2. Two industry chains, wind power and photovoltaic. The basic principle of wind power is the conversion of kinetic energy and electric energy, which uses magnetic field transformation. The raw materials involved are: Rare Earth magnetic materials (praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium) , copper, aluminum, steel, concrete, carbon fiber and glass fiber, etc. . There are many photovoltaic technology processes, and different process paths involve different raw materials. Important varieties include: silver, copper, indium, gallium, selenium, silicon dioxide, cadmium, tellurium, and aluminum. Aluminum is mainly used in the frame.

3. How big is the demand for image display? 1) the rule of fan installation since 2010, the General Fan specifications in 5MW/set, fan diameter 125 meters, 125 meters high. Future specifications are expected to be 20MW/stage, 250m in diameter and 180m in height. Different models use different amounts, key varieties use (ton/GW, average calculation) : ALUMINUM 1000, Copper 3000, Molybdenum 100, nickel 350, zinc 5500. In this way, it is important to mention the dosage of rare earth (ton/GW) : Pr Nd 12-215, TB 0-7, dy 2-17. The dosage range is large and involves different technical processes. 2) pv requirements in pv applications, the corresponding amounts of different technologies are involved. The general raw materials (estimated 2030 level) include 4,600 tons of Copper/gw, 7,500 tons of aluminum/GW, 3,000 tons of silicon/GW, 60,000 tons of concrete/GW, 65,000 tons of steel/GW, 8,600 tons of plastic/GW, 46,000 tons of Glass/gw, 10 tons of silver/GW. Other technologies, such as CIGS (copper, indium, gallium and Tin) , have seen a sharp rise in the use of small metals, such as the average demand for indium of about 20 tons/GW; of course, as technology advances, the amount used per unit will fall. Ultimately, whether wind or photovoltaic, the most important form of energy storage is the battery, which involves lithium (positive) , nickel (positive) and copper (negative) . The specific amount used in the past report has a lot of description, this article does not repeat. 4. Based on the current global demand of each kind of fan, the increment order of raw materials in the fan is: Over 300% of TB, 53% of PR, ND, 46% of zn, 33% of MO, 18% of NI, 12% of cu, 8% of CR. Similarly, for PV, based on the current global annual demand for each variety, the growth rates are 176 per cent for indium, 133 per cent for gallium, 42 per cent for silver, 38 per cent for silicon, 18 per cent for copper and 13 per cent for aluminium. 5. The demand increment is calculated according to 1000GW newly installed pv and 1000GW newly added wind power. 1) copper is essential for both wind and photovoltaic power, and this is due to its ability to conduct electricity. If 1,000 gw of wind turbines and 1,000 gw of new photovoltaic installations are used, copper demand will increase by 7.6 m tonnes, a 30 per cent increase over current global demand. (2) dysprosium terbium (300% above) and indium (176%) are the most demanding varieties in wind turbine and photovoltaic respectively. 3) the fan chain will drive praseodymium and neodymium (53%) , zinc (46%) , molybdenum (33%) and chromium (8%) . The photovoltaic chain drives silver (42%) , silicon (38%) and aluminium (13%) . 6. Uncertainty analysis if the commodity price increases too much, will stimulate the industrial chain to constantly change the production process to reduce unit consumption. 1. Background: Energy Reform is unstoppable. The current global electricity mix is still dominated by fossil fuels, accounting for about 60 per cent; renewable energy, about 30 per cent; and nuclear power, about 10 per cent. We believe that the future increase in the share of new energy is unstoppable. 2. Two industrial chains: Wind Power and photovoltaic wind power are based on the conversion of kinetic and electrical energy using magnetic field transformation. The raw materials involved are: Rare Earth magnetic materials (praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium) , copper, aluminum, steel, concrete, carbon fiber and glass fiber, etc. .

There are many photovoltaic technology processes, and different process paths involve different raw materials. Important varieties include: silver, copper, indium, gallium, selenium, silicon dioxide, cadmium, tellurium, and aluminum. Aluminum is mainly used in the frame.

3. Image: How big is the demand? 3.1 Fan installation rules from 2010 onwards, the prevailing fan size is 5MW/set, fan diameter 125m, height 125m. Future specifications are expected to be 20MW/stage, 250m in diameter and 180m in height.

First Note: direct-drive excitation synchronous generator (DD-EESG) , cheap, high power, the disadvantages are low efficiency, motor structure is complex. Direct-drive permanent magnet synchronous generator (DD-PMSG) , low maintenance, high efficiency, disadvantages are expensive. Gear permanent magnet synchronous generator (GB-PMSG) , low maintenance, high efficiency, light weight, high power, disadvantage is expensive. Gear doubly fed induction generator (GB-DFIG) , cheap, but inefficient for transient sensitivity. Different models use different amounts, key varieties use (ton/GW, average calculation) : ALUMINUM 1000, Copper 3000, Molybdenum 100, nickel 350, zinc 5500. In this way, it is important to mention the dosage of rare earth (ton/GW) : Pr Nd 12-215, TB 0-7, dy 2-17. The dosage range is large and involves different technical processes.

3.2 pv requirements in pv applications, the corresponding amounts for different technologies are involved. The general raw materials (estimated 2030 level) include 4,600 tons of Copper/gw, 7,500 tons of aluminum/GW, 3,000 tons of silicon/GW, 60,000 tons of concrete/GW, 65,000 tons of steel/GW, 8,600 tons of plastic/GW, 46,000 tons of Glass/gw, 10 tons of silver/GW.

Other technologies, such as CIGS (copper, indium, gallium and Tin) , have seen a sharp rise in the use of small metals, such as the average demand for indium of about 20 tons/GW; of course, as technology advances, the amount used per unit will fall. Ultimately, whether wind or photovoltaic, the most important form of energy storage is the battery, which involves lithium (positive) , nickel (positive) and copper (negative) . The specific amount used in the past report has a lot of description, this article does not repeat.

4. If the elasticity of demand is calculated on the basis of 1000GW of new wind turbines installed, and based on the current global demand for each type, the increment order of raw materials in the fan are: dysprosium terbium 300% , praseodymium and neodymium 53% , zinc 46% , molybdenum 33% , nickel 18% , copper 12% , chromium 8% .

Similarly, for PV, based on the current global annual demand for each variety, the growth rates are 176 per cent for indium, 133 per cent for gallium, 42 per cent for silver, 38 per cent for silicon, 18 per cent for copper and 13 per cent for aluminium.

5. The demand increment is calculated according to 1000GW newly installed pv and 1000GW newly added wind power. 1) copper is essential for both wind and photovoltaic power, and this is due to its ability to conduct electricity. If 1,000 gw of wind turbines and 1,000 gw of new photovoltaic installations are used, copper demand will increase by 7.6 m tonnes, a 30 per cent increase over current global demand. (2) dysprosium terbium (300% above) and indium (176%) are the most demanding varieties in wind turbine and photovoltaic respectively. 3) the fan chain will drive praseodymium and neodymium (53%) , zinc (46%) , molybdenum (33%) and chromium (8%) . The photovoltaic chain drives silver (42%) , silicon (38%) and aluminium (13%) . 6. Uncertainty analysis if commodity prices rise too much, it will stimulate the industrial chain to constantly change production processes to reduce unit consumption. 

Source: Haitong International

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